{"id":11618,"date":"2020-08-25T08:06:50","date_gmt":"2020-08-25T06:06:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/?p=11618"},"modified":"2020-08-25T08:06:50","modified_gmt":"2020-08-25T06:06:50","slug":"kuzey-ve-dogu-suriyedeki-ozerk-yonetimin-gelecegine-yonelik-senaryolar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/kuzey-ve-dogu-suriyedeki-ozerk-yonetimin-gelecegine-yonelik-senaryolar\/","title":{"rendered":"Kuzey ve Do\u011fu Suriye’deki \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netimin Gelece\u011fine Y\u00f6nelik Senaryolar"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Suriye’de ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc I\u015e\u0130D’in ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve T\u00fcrk i\u015fgalci devletinin deste\u011fiyle Suriye’nin geni\u015f alanlar\u0131n\u0131 kontrol etmesi, Rojava b\u00f6lgelerine y\u00f6nelik tehdidi ile Halk ve Kad\u0131n savunma Birlikleri, bu \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn ilerlemesini durdurup b\u00f6lgelerini koruyabildiler. Ard\u0131ndan b\u00f6lge halk\u0131ndan Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7lerinin olu\u015fturulmas\u0131, I\u015e\u0130D’i ma\u011flup etme, \u00a0kuzey ve do\u011fu Suriye’de \u00f6zerk bir y\u00f6netim kurma projelerini tamamlad\u0131lar. \u00d6te yandan T\u00fcrkiye’nin destekledi\u011fi s\u00f6zde Suriye muhalefet koalisyonu, Rusya ile T\u00fcrkiye aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan anla\u015fmalarla rejim lehine kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn t\u00fcm alanlar\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti ve \u0130dlib’deki varl\u0131klar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131 Ve K\u00fcrt halk\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 tarihi T\u00fcrk d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Suriye koalisyonundaki paral\u0131 askerleri kullanarak, Suriye rejimini deviremedikleri i\u00e7in Afrin, Serekaniye ve Gire Spi’yi i\u015fgal etti. Ancak buna ra\u011fmen Suriye’nin kuzey ve do\u011fusundaki b\u00f6lge halklar\u0131, b\u00f6lgelerinin \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netimi’nde projelerinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 kan\u0131tlad\u0131lar ve uluslararas\u0131 toplumdan destek ald\u0131lar, ancak bu proje, \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim’in Suriye’den ayr\u0131lma talebi olmamas\u0131na ve her daim Suriye\u2019nin birli\u011finden yana olduklar\u0131na beyan etmesine ra\u011fmen T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran ve Suriye rejimi taraf\u0131ndan memnuniyetle kar\u015f\u0131lanmad\u0131. K\u00fclt\u00fcrel, ekonomik ve askeri olarak T\u00fcrkiye ile ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale gelen T\u00fcrk i\u015fgal b\u00f6lgelerinin aksine. \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim’in ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131, rejim ve destek\u00e7isi Rusya, T\u00fcrkiye ve paral\u0131 askerlerinin \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 kuzey ve do\u011fu Suriye’de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ate\u015flemeye ve Bakara a\u015firetinin s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc S\u00fcleyman el-Kassar’a suikast ve ayn\u0131 a\u015firetin son katledilen S\u00fcleyman el-Vais’e suikast\u0131yla baz\u0131 Arap a\u015firet sembollerine suikast d\u00fczenlemelerine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. En son olarak Ag\u0131dat a\u015firetinin ileri gelen \u015feyhlerinde Ma\u015fter Alhammud Al-havel katledilmesi oldu. \u00d6zellikle demokratik \u00f6zerk y\u00f6netimin Amerikan “deley crist energy” \u015firketiyle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 istismar anla\u015fmas\u0131 ki; b\u00f6lge ekonomisine olumlu etkileri olaca\u011f\u0131 bilinen bu anla\u015fma ve hen\u00fcz ilan d\u00fczeyinde olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Rusya taraf\u0131ndan kabul g\u00f6rmedi ve her \u00f6zerk y\u00f6netimin b\u00f6lgesinde varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde giri\u015fimlerde bulunuyor, \u00f6zerk y\u00f6netimi ve Demokratik Suriye G\u00fc\u00e7lerini zay\u0131flatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Suriye’de herhangi bir siyasi uzla\u015fmaya ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce Rusya, kendisine uygun ve \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 garanti alt\u0131na alan bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm i\u00e7in var g\u00fcc\u00fcyle \u00e7abal\u0131yor ve e\u011fer durum b\u00f6yle devam ederse, o zaman en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik zarar\u0131 ilk etapta Rus taraf\u0131na olacak \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Sezar yasas\u0131 herhangi bir \u015firket veya devletin rejim kontrol\u00fcndeki alanlara yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmas\u0131n\u0131 yasakl\u0131yor. Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7leri, Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ve Uluslararas\u0131 Koalisyon’un ortaklar\u0131d\u0131r ve \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim b\u00f6lgeleri yapt\u0131r\u0131mlardan muaft\u0131r, bu nedenle Rusya, Suriye’deki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi etmek ve Suriye’nin kuzey ve do\u011fusundaki h\u00e2kimiyetini sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in Amerikan \u015firketi yerine bir petrol yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi almay\u0131 hedeflemektedir. \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netimin ba\u015far\u0131lar\u0131 ile rejimin ba\u015f\u0131na bela olan ekonomik krizler, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik meyvelerini alamamas\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kuzey ve do\u011fu Suriye\u2019yi i\u015fgal edememesi, \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim ve Demokratik Suriye G\u00fc\u00e7leri (DSG) \u00e7e\u015fitli senaryolarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rakmaktad\u0131r:<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rus-T\u00fcrk \u0130ttifak\u0131 ile \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim ve DSG\u2019nin Tasfiyesi <\/strong><\/p>\n

Afrin, Gre Spi ve Sere Kaniye’nin i\u015fgaline yol a\u00e7an “Zeytin Dal\u0131 ve Bar\u0131\u015f P\u0131nar\u0131” operasyonlar\u0131na benzer \u015fekilde, ABD’nin Suriye’den \u00e7ekilmesi durumunda geli\u015febilme ihtimali vard\u0131r. Ancak, Rusya’n\u0131n NATO \u00fcyesi T\u00fcrkiye ile ittifak\u0131 ABD taraf\u0131ndan kabul edilmeyece\u011fi i\u00e7in bu senaryo biraz uzakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD’nin kuzey ve do\u011fu Suriye’deki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7leri ile olan ili\u015fkileriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. \u00d6zerk y\u00f6netimin ve demokratik Suriye g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin bitirilmesi ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD ‘nin Suriye\u2019deki n\u00fcfuzu bitmesi ve Suriye siyasi s\u00fcrecinden Rusya ve T\u00fcrkiye lehine \u00e7ekilmesi anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Ayr\u0131ca Rusya, T\u00fcrk i\u015fgalinin kontrol\u00fcndeki \u0130dlib’i yeniden ele ge\u00e7irmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc iki taraf aras\u0131ndaki ittifak, Suriye’nin kuzeyindeki T\u00fcrk i\u015fgal b\u00f6lgelerine, \u00f6zellikle de \u0130dlib’e ili\u015fkin netle\u015fme gerektiriyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye, \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim’i sona erdirme kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda rejim lehine i\u015fgali alt\u0131nda bulunan b\u00f6lgelerden feragat etmeyi kabul etmeyecek. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu; Suriye krizinde kay\u0131pla \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmektedir.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim B\u00f6lgelerinde Fitili Ate\u015flemek<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu senaryo, Suriye krizinin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana ister T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden ister rejim arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla Deyrizor, Rakka ve \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netimin baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerindeki baz\u0131 a\u015firet fig\u00fcrleri ili\u015fkileri yoluyla i\u015flenmi\u015ftir. Ancak bu senaryoda yeni olan, AlBakara ve Al-Aqedat gibi Arap a\u015firet sembollerini hedef almak, bu a\u015firetler i\u00e7indeki b\u00f6l\u00fcnmelerden yararlanarak, Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7lerini ve \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netimi son zamanlarda meydana gelen suikastlarla su\u00e7lamakt\u0131r. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim’in yabanc\u0131 \u015firketleri b\u00f6lge halklar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgelerine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmaya \u00e7ekerek, b\u00f6lge bile\u015fenlerini \u00f6zy\u00f6netimlerine daha ba\u011fl\u0131 hale getirme ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131ndan sonra geldi. Bu nedenle Rusya, T\u00fcrkiye ve rejim yabanc\u0131 \u015firketlerin \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim alanlar\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek amac\u0131yla b\u00f6lgede istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k yaratmay\u0131 ve b\u00f6lge halklar\u0131n\u0131n bile\u015fenleri aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131k fitilini ate\u015flemeyi hedefliyor. Bu eylemlerin a\u015firet \u015feyhleri ve Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7lerinin liderleriyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmayaca\u011f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 birden fazla kez Suriye’den \u00e7ekilme iste\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, Amerika’n\u0131n b\u00f6lgeden \u00e7ekilmesini h\u0131zland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in koalisyon askerlerini, \u00f6zellikle de Amerikal\u0131lar\u0131 da hedefleyecektir.<\/p>\n

Rusya ve Rejimin \u00d6z Y\u00f6netim Mod\u00fcl\u00fcne Raz\u0131 Gelip, T\u00fcrk \u0130\u015fgaline Son Vermesi<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusya, rejim ve T\u00fcrkiye’nin b\u00f6lgede karga\u015fay\u0131 yaratma giri\u015fimlerinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim b\u00f6lgelerine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmak \u00fczere yabanc\u0131 \u015firketlerin girmesi ile Amerikan g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim b\u00f6lgelerinde kalmas\u0131, Kuzey ve Do\u011fu Suriye \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netimi’nin sonland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 zor olacakt\u0131r. Bu \u015firketlerin b\u00f6lgedeki yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korumalar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fclkelerine bask\u0131 yapacak olmalar\u0131, Rusya ve rejimi \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim’e boyun e\u011fmeye ve kabul etmeye zorlayacakt\u0131r.\u00a0 Ancak Rusya, t\u00fcm Suriye’yi kontrol alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in kendi b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm istiyor ve \u0130dlib’de veya Libya’da artan Rus-T\u00fcrk g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ile Rusya, \u0130dlib’de beklenen sava\u015f\u0131nda ve T\u00fcrkiye i\u015fgali alt\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgelerdeki ter\u00f6rist gruplar\u0131n ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7lerinin yard\u0131m\u0131na ba\u015fvurabilir. Buna ek olarak, Rusya’n\u0131n Suriye’nin kuzey ve do\u011fusunda izleyebilece\u011fi yollar ve y\u00f6ntemler var. Bunlar da T\u00fcrk insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7leri liderlerini hedef alan askeri operasyonlar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesine izin vermek, SDG’yi ABD ile ili\u015fkisine benzer \u015fekilde taleplerine boyun e\u011fmeye zorlamakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6lge halklar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik ve istikrarl\u0131 halini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in her t\u00fcrl\u00fc fedak\u00e2rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaparak, olas\u0131 herhangi bir senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131 \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim’in kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak, i\u00e7 cepheyi sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131rmak ve b\u00f6lge halklar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6netimiyle dayan\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek, b\u00f6lge halklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netimini sona erdirmeyi hedefleyen Rusya veya T\u00fcrkiye’ye kar\u015f\u0131 tek yoldur.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

K\u00fcrdistan Stratejik Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 Suriye’de ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc I\u015e\u0130D’in ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve T\u00fcrk i\u015fgalci devletinin deste\u011fiyle Suriye’nin geni\u015f alanlar\u0131n\u0131 kontrol etmesi, Rojava b\u00f6lgelerine y\u00f6nelik tehdidi ile Halk ve Kad\u0131n savunma Birlikleri, bu \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn ilerlemesini durdurup b\u00f6lgelerini koruyabildiler. Ard\u0131ndan b\u00f6lge halk\u0131ndan Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7lerinin olu\u015fturulmas\u0131, I\u015e\u0130D’i ma\u011flup etme, \u00a0kuzey ve do\u011fu Suriye’de \u00f6zerk bir y\u00f6netim kurma projelerini tamamlad\u0131lar. \u00d6te yandan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":11619,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"subtitle":"","format":"standard","video":"","gallery":"","source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"0","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"0","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":""},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":""},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"jnews_post_split":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[2826,544,2979,2978,2975,41,169,501,484,2977,2145,2976,2962],"class_list":["post-11618","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politik-analiz","tag-abd","tag-afrin","tag-arap-asiretleri","tag-asiretler","tag-dsg","tag-efrin","tag-iran","tag-qsd","tag-rusya","tag-sehba","tag-suikast","tag-suriye-rejimi","tag-turk-devleti"],"acf":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11618","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11618"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11618\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11620,"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11618\/revisions\/11620"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11619"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11618"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11618"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11618"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}