Yay\u0131n organlar\u0131, siyasi partiler, sivil toplum \u00f6rg\u00fctleri gibi d\u00fczenli yazanlar da adet oldu\u011fu \u00fczere y\u0131l biterken y\u0131l de\u011ferlendirmesi yaparlar. Kimileri istatistiki bilgilerle y\u0131l\u0131n geli\u015fmelerini konulara ay\u0131rarak verir, kimi de ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeleri dikkate alarak analizler yapar ve yeni y\u0131lda d\u00fcnyay\u0131, insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bekleyen yeni geli\u015fmeler hakk\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini payla\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bir s\u00fcredir bu k\u00f6\u015fede yazmam y\u0131l de\u011ferlendirmesi yapmama gerek\u00e7e say\u0131labilir. Ancak b\u00f6yle bir adede \u015fimdilik kat\u0131lma niyetim yok. Zaten bir \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131mda \u0130ranl\u0131 iki yetkilinin suikast\u0131n\u0131, 2020\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu’da ya\u015fanan \u00f6nemli iki olay\u0131 olarak yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Ve bu iki siyasi cinayettin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesine neden olan siyasi ortam\u0131, bu ortamda ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 bu c\u00fcretkar eylemlerine zemin haz\u0131rlayan b\u00f6lge g\u00fc\u00e7lerini ele alarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerimi payla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131da da \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 eylemlerde cesaret kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Erdo\u011fan-Bah\u00e7eli hakimiyetindeki T\u00fcrk devleti oldu\u011funu nedenleriyle anlatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. ABD\u2019nin Irak\u2019ta kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan \u015feyin de Irak\u2019ta Kazimi \u00e7izgisindeki siyaset oldu\u011funu vermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. T\u00fcrk devletinin \u0130ran\u2019l\u0131lara kar\u015f\u0131 suikast eylemlerinin yap\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an cesaretlendirici unsur olmas\u0131n\u0131 da Suriye ve Irak topraklar\u0131ndaki i\u015fgalinin Trump ABD\u2019since te\u015fvik edilmesinde g\u00f6rebilece\u011fimizi yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. T\u00fcrk devletinin, ABD\u2019nin bu plan\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde Irak\u2019a geldi\u011finin de\u015fifre olmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in de KDP-TC ili\u015fki ve ittifak\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6rt\u00fc olarak kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Bir \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131m, y\u0131l de\u011ferlendirmesi olarak okunacaksa, ABD \u0130ran aras\u0131nda Irak sahas\u0131nda s\u00fcren \u00e7eki\u015fmenin 2021\u2019de alaca\u011f\u0131 seyir hakk\u0131nda Kazimi y\u00f6netiminin durumuna, KDP-TC ili\u015fkilerine ve TC-ABD ili\u015fkilerine bakarak \u00f6nermede bulunabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ge\u00e7en haftaki yaz\u0131mdan sonra bas\u0131ndan \u00f6\u011frendi\u011fimden benim i\u00e7in yeni say\u0131lacak birka\u00e7 geli\u015fme, iddialar\u0131m\u0131n mutlak do\u011fru oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermese de destekledi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm i\u00e7in, bu hafta da ge\u00e7en haftaki yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam olacak bir de\u011ferlendirme yazmak istedim. Bu vesile ile t\u00fcm okuyucular\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yeni y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 kutlayarak bu haftaki de\u011ferlendirmeye ge\u00e7elim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bahse konu geli\u015fmelerden birincisi, kuzey-do\u011fu Suriye \u00f6zerk y\u00f6netim b\u00f6lgesi ile Ba\u015fur K\u00fcrdistan aras\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rda (Rojava ile Ba\u015fur K\u00fcrdistan aras\u0131nda) QSD g\u00fc\u00e7leri ile KDP\u2019ye ba\u011fl\u0131 paral\u0131-\u00f6zel g\u00fc\u00e7ler (Zerevani g\u00fc\u00e7leri) aras\u0131nda ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclen bir gerginlikten sonra Mesrur Barzani\u2019nin ABD D\u0131\u015f \u0130\u015fler bakan\u0131 Pompeo\u2019dan, Bakur-Rojava-Ba\u015fur \u00fc\u00e7genine ABD\u2019nin asker konu\u015fland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 talep etmesi oldu. Devletler aras\u0131 hukuk diliyle belirtirsek Mesrur Barzani, T\u00fcrkiye-Suriye-Irak s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n kesi\u015fti\u011fi noktaya ABD askerlerini \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131. Daha da ileri giderek QSD\u2019ye silah verilmemesini talep etti. Parti olarak KDP\u2019yi, aile olarak Mesut Barzani\u2019yi ve ki\u015fi olarak Mesrur Barzani\u2019yi tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z kadar\u0131yla bu sadece ba\u015fbakan olarak Mesrur\u2019un g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olamaz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD askerlerini devletler hukukuna g\u00f6re Irak topraklar\u0131n\u0131n en stratejik noktalar\u0131ndan birine Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetine ra\u011fmen ya da habersiz \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rmak ikinci bir referandum sonras\u0131 geli\u015fmeye yol a\u00e7abilirdi. Milliyet\u00e7i \u015eiileri \u0130brahim Xelil kap\u0131s\u0131na kadar getirebilirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bana g\u00f6re bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Mesrur Barzani\u2019ye T\u00fcrkiye D\u0131\u015f \u0130\u015fler bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6yletti. Kazimi de haberdard\u0131. T\u00fcrkler kendi politik ama\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 bu y\u00f6ntemle ABD\u2019ye iletti. T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran ve Irak\u2019l\u0131 \u015eii guruplar\u0131n tepkisini g\u00f6ze alamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu yolu se\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Peki Mesrur Barzani neden T\u00fcrk D\u0131\u015f \u0130\u015fleri yetkilisi g\u00f6revini \u00fcstlendi? KDP bu \u00f6neriyi ABD\u2019ye yaparken, t\u0131pk\u0131 \u015eengal anla\u015fmas\u0131ndaki \u2018tavsiye\u2019 gibi, ABD\u2019nin kendisine \u2018belirtti\u011finiz noktaya asker g\u00f6nderemeyiz iyisi mi siz (KDP), Irak ve T\u00fcrkiye birlikte oray\u0131 tutun\u2019 cevab\u0131 alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 umdu\u011fu i\u00e7in. Ben T\u00fcrklerin de ABD\u2019nin ambargodan sonra Erdo\u011fan’\u0131 b\u00f6yle rahatlatabilece\u011fini tahmin etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD, son k\u0131rk y\u0131ld\u0131r T\u00fcrk devletini K\u00fcrtler \u00fczerinden verdi\u011fi tavizler kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kullan\u0131yor. Geriyor ve rahatlat\u0131yor. TC ve KDP\u2019nin ortak tahmini, Mesrur Barzani\u2019nin boyunu \u00e7ok \u00e7ok a\u015fan bir i\u015fi T\u00fcrkler ad\u0131na yapmaya g\u00f6t\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. KDP\u2019nin, ABD\u2019den duyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 umdu\u011fu (belki de duymu\u015ftur, biz Monit\u00f6r sitesine g\u00fcvenerek umuyordu diyoruz) T\u00fcrk ordusunu \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclkenin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n kesi\u015fti\u011fi yere konumland\u0131rma g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc dolayl\u0131 yoldan yani ABD talimat\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirme y\u00f6ntemini se\u00e7mesinde, KDP\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye ile ili\u015fkilerinden \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc K\u00fcrtler aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok te\u015fhir olmas\u0131 belirleyici nedendir. Bundan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc de Mesrur Barzani T\u00fcrk D\u0131\u015f \u0130\u015fleri bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir memuru gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak, T\u00fcrklerin yay\u0131lmac\u0131 emellerini ve KDP-TC ili\u015fkilerini K\u00fcrtlerden gizlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
T\u00fcrk ordusunun malum \u00fc\u00e7gene konumland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 en ba\u015fta Suriye ve \u0130ran i\u00e7in tehdit demektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc b\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131m, Irak merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmeti b\u00f6lgesiyle T\u00fcrkiye pazar\u0131n\u0131 birbirine do\u011frudan ba\u011flamak i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 istenen Ova k\u00f6y s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7maya bir ad\u0131m daha yakla\u015fmak, T\u00fcrkiye ile S\u00fcnni Arap b\u00f6lgesine do\u011frudan etkide bulunacak yeni bir askeri ve istihbarat \u00fcss\u00fc demektir. Buradan Musul\u2019a uzanma imkan\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcrkiye, Suriye’de \u0130ran’\u0131 arkadan ku\u015fatm\u0131\u015f olacak. Buradan bir \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131ma bir g\u00f6nderme yaparak tekrardan kurtulay\u0131m; T\u00fcrkiye’nin Irak ve Suriye’de g\u00fc\u00e7 olmas\u0131n\u0131 en \u00e7ok isteyen g\u00fc\u00e7 ABD\u2019dir. ABD bunu \u0130ran’\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rman\u0131n bir yolu olarak se\u00e7mi\u015ftir. Bunun i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye, Trump y\u00f6netiminin deste\u011finde Suriye ve Ba\u015fur K\u00fcrdistan topraklar\u0131nda i\u015fgal \u00fcsleri kurdu. B\u0131den ABD\u2019si de bu plan\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcm\u00fc? Bence s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonland\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha fazlad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Neden mi?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump ABD\u2019si, Erdo\u011fan ve ekibinin psikolojik durumunu iyi okuduklar\u0131 i\u00e7in, temel takti\u011fini T\u00fcrklerin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7mak, sald\u0131rtmak, i\u015fgaller yapt\u0131rmakt\u0131. Bu politika Erdo\u011fan-Bah\u00e7eli T\u00fcrkiye\u2019sinin Suriye ve Irak\u2019taki i\u015fgallerinin ana destekleyici unsuru oldu. Ancak bu \u00f6n a\u00e7ma T\u00fcrkiye devletinin askeri yolla yay\u0131lma oran\u0131 ile ekonomik ve diplomatik g\u00fcc\u00fc aras\u0131ndaki dengeyi bozdu. Bu da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi d\u00fcnyada en zordaki \u00fclkesi haline getirdi. \u0130\u015fte politika B\u0131den ABD\u2019sinin T\u00fcrklere kar\u015f\u0131 kullanaca\u011f\u0131 ara\u00e7lar\u0131 haz\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump T\u00fcrklerin imparatorluk hayallerini iyi kulland\u0131. Trump T\u00fcrkleri \u2018\u015f\u0131martt\u0131\u2019. Erdo\u011fan ve ekibinin ki\u015filik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlemesini iyi yapan Trump ekibi, T\u00fcrklerin a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131p sa\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na zemin verdi. T\u00fcrklere b\u00fcy\u00fck su\u00e7lar i\u015fletildi. T\u00fcm su\u00e7 dosyalar\u0131 ABD\u2019nin elindeki T\u00fcrkler, B\u0131den ABD\u2019sinin kuca\u011f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ve b\u00f6ylece B\u0131den ABD\u2019si T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye \u2018su\u00e7 i\u015flediniz, her \u015feyinizi kaybetmek istemiyorsan\u0131z\u2026\u2019 diyerek kullanacak. Ayr\u0131ca, B\u0131den ABD\u2019si T\u00fcrklerde \u2018biz ambargo uygulanacak 3. D\u00fcnya devleti de\u011filiz\u2019 politik duygusunu tahrik ederek, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi ABD \u00e7izgisinde \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 kullanmaya mecbur edebilir. T\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmelerde Mesut ve o\u011flu Mesrur Barzani denetimindeki KDP meze olarak kullan\u0131lacak. Mesrur Barzani\u2019nin ABD\u2019den \u2018s\u0131n\u0131ra asker g\u00f6nder\u2019 demesi mezenin ilk taba\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. T\u00fcrkler KDP\u2019yi, Irak ve \u0130ran ile do\u011frudan kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelmemek i\u00e7in politik bir perde olarak kullan\u0131yor. Buna da hakl\u0131 olarak kan\u0131t say\u0131lmasa da gerek\u00e7em T\u00fcrklerin Ba\u015fur K\u00fcrdistan’a Suriyeli S\u00fcnni cihadist guruplardan \u00e7eteleri aktarmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair s\u00f6ylentilerdir. Bu do\u011fruysa T\u00fcrk ordusunun Ba\u015fur K\u00fcrdistan’da \u0130ran’a en yak\u0131n tutu\u011fu nokta olan Xakurk b\u00f6lgesine de cihadistleri yerle\u015ftirece\u011fidir. Bu da tam olarak ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 politikas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
T\u00fcrk devleti son birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde Libya\u2019dan Karaba\u011f\u2019a kadar her \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma b\u00f6lgesine bu cihadistleri g\u00f6nderdi. Herkes\u00e7e ter\u00f6rist say\u0131lan bu guruplar\u0131, bu kadar kolay ve aleni g\u00f6ndermesinin, NATO (ABD demek daha do\u011fru olur) ve \u0130srail\u2019den habersiz olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek safl\u0131k olur. Son Karaba\u011f sava\u015f\u0131nda da Erdo\u011fan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019si \u0130ran’\u0131 adeta kuzeyden sararcas\u0131na \u00e7ete g\u00f6nderince art\u0131k saf olmamal\u0131y\u0131z demek gerekir. \u0130srail\u2019in de Azerbaycan\u2019da hat\u0131r\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131r etkisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcnce, neden olmas\u0131n demek gerekir. Bu veriler, T\u00fcrklerin Suriye ve Irak topraklar\u0131nda PKK\u2019yi gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek alan tutmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel hedeflerle ba\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve daha derin hesaplar\u0131n\u0131 daha iyi g\u00f6stermektedir. Ya\u015fananlar bize T\u00fcrk devletinin Ba\u015fur ve Bakur K\u00fcrdistan aras\u0131na \u00e7ete yerle\u015ftirmesinin en kolay i\u015f oldu\u011funu yeterince g\u00f6steriyor. Daha tehlikelisiyse KDP\u2019nin istihbarat b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc Parast\u0131n ile T\u00fcrk M\u0130T\u2019nin \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 bu \u00e7etelerle ortak operasyonel bir aktivite i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130kinci g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olas\u0131l\u0131k, \u00e7etelerle \u0130ran ile m\u00fcttefik Irak\u2019l\u0131 \u015eii guruplar\u0131 hedeflemesidir. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve K\u00fcrtler aras\u0131 sava\u015fa neden olacak olas\u0131l\u0131ksa, Parast\u0131n ve M\u0130T\u2019in bu \u00e7etelerle YNK denetimindeki b\u00f6lgelerde eylemler yapmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeler KDP\u2019yi t\u00fcmden TC\u2019nin korucu ordusu (Cah\u015f\u0131), TC\u2019yi de ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki en etkili jandarmas\u0131 yapacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2021\u2019e dair b\u00f6yle bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcde bulunman\u0131n nedenleri i\u015fte bunlard\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mehmet G\u00d6REN<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n K\u00fcrdistan Stratejik Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yay\u0131n organlar\u0131, siyasi partiler, sivil toplum \u00f6rg\u00fctleri gibi d\u00fczenli yazanlar da adet oldu\u011fu \u00fczere y\u0131l biterken y\u0131l de\u011ferlendirmesi yaparlar. Kimileri istatistiki bilgilerle y\u0131l\u0131n geli\u015fmelerini konulara ay\u0131rarak verir, kimi de ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeleri dikkate alarak analizler yapar ve yeni y\u0131lda d\u00fcnyay\u0131, insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bekleyen yeni geli\u015fmeler hakk\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini payla\u015f\u0131r. Bir s\u00fcredir bu k\u00f6\u015fede yazmam y\u0131l de\u011ferlendirmesi yapmama gerek\u00e7e […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":12377,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"subtitle":"","format":"standard","video":"","gallery":"","source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override":[{"single_blog_custom":"","sidebar":"","second_sidebar":"","share_position":"","share_float_style":"","post_date_format":"","post_date_format_custom":"","post_reading_time_wpm":"","zoom_button_out_step":"1","zoom_button_in_step":"1","number_popup_post":"1"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"","single_post_gallery_size":""}],"trending_post_position":"","trending_post_label":"","sponsored_post_label":"","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":""},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":""},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"jnews_post_split":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[3028,2826,347,3030,2962],"class_list":["post-12376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makaleler","tag-3028","tag-abd","tag-kdp","tag-mesrur-barzani","tag-turk-devleti"],"acf":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12376","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12376"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12376\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12378,"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12376\/revisions\/12378"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12377"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12376"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12376"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12376"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}