Ge\u015fedan\u00ean daw\u00ee y\u00ean li Rojhilata Nav\u00een, bi taybet\u00ee \u00ear\u00ee\u015f\u00ean li ser \u00ceran\u00ea, dikarin wek\u00ee be\u015fek ji senaryoyek \u015eer\u00ea C\u00eehan\u00ea y\u00ea S\u00eayem\u00een werin hesibandin ku armanc dike her\u00eam\u00ea ji n\u00fb ve \u015fekil bide. Ev rew\u015f n\u00ee\u015fana b\u00ea\u00e7alakiya ku dewlet\u00ean netewey\u00ee dij\u00een \u00fb hewldana derbaskirina kr\u00eeza gerd\u00fbn\u00ee ya modern\u00eeteya kap\u00eetal\u00eest e. Ne dihat h\u00eav\u00eekirin ku p\u00eavajoya ku bi \u00ear\u00ee\u015fa Hamas\u00ea ya li ser \u00cesra\u00eel\u00ea di 7\u2019\u00ea Cotmeha 2023\u2019an de dest p\u00ea kir bi Filist\u00een\u00ea ve s\u00eenordar be \u00fb ka \u00e7awa p\u00eavajo hate destp\u00eakirin h\u00een j\u00ee mijara n\u00eeqa\u015f\u00ea ye. H\u00eaz\u00ean wek\u00eel \u00ean ku ji h\u00eala \u00ceran\u00ea ve li her\u00eam\u00ean wek\u00ee Lubnan (Hizbullah), Filist\u00een (Hamas) \u00fb Yemen\u00ea (H\u00fbs\u00ee) t\u00eane pi\u015ftgir\u00ee kirin bi dem\u00ea re hatin hedefgirtin \u00fb b\u00eabandor kirin. V\u00ea yek\u00ea qada manewraya her\u00eam\u00ee ya \u00ceran\u00ea teng kir \u00fb veki\u015f\u00eena hik\u00fbmeta Colan\u00ee ya li S\u00fbriyey\u00ea ji \u015eam\u00ea bandora \u00ceran\u00ea li dervey\u00ee wel\u00eat qels kir.<\/p>\n
Her \u00e7end ev kom\u00ean ku ji h\u00eala \u00ceran\u00ea ve t\u00eane pi\u015ftgir\u00ee kirin di dem\u00ean ber\u00ea de ji bo \u00cesra\u00eel \u00fb Dewlet\u00ean Yekb\u00fby\u00ee<\/p>\n
Emer\u00eekay\u00ea (DYE) gef\u00ean le\u015fker\u00ee y\u00ean astengker b\u00fbn, niha wan bi piran\u00ee ev kapas\u00eete winda kirine. Bi \u00ear\u00ee\u015f\u00ean heway\u00ee y\u00ean \u00cesra\u00eel\u00ea y\u00ean ku di sala 2024\u2019an de li ser tes\u00ees\u00ean nukleer\u00ee y\u00ean \u00ceran\u00ea armanc dikirin, serdema \u015fer\u00ean wek\u00eel \u00fb tac\u00eeza hevdu bi daw\u00ee b\u00fbye; \u015ferek\u00ee germ dest p\u00ea kiriye. Ev rew\u015f n\u00ee\u015fan dide ku pev\u00e7\u00fbn derbas\u00ee aliyek\u00ee n\u00fb b\u00fbye. Destwerdana rasterast a DYE di pev\u00e7\u00fbn\u00ea de \u00fb peyama w\u00ea ya ji bo \u00cesra\u00eel\u00ea di civ\u00eena n\u00fbner\u00ean da\u00eem\u00ee y\u00ean Netewey\u00ean Yekb\u00fby\u00ee (NY) de ku “\u00ead\u00ee bes e” \u00fb ji bo \u00ceran\u00ea ku “dev ji israra li ser tes\u00ees\u00ean nukleer\u00ee berde” hewldanek e ji bo d\u00eetina hevsengiyek di navbera d\u00eeplomas\u00ee \u00fb \u015fer de. L\u00eabel\u00ea, hewldan\u00ean \u00cengil\u00eestan, Almanya \u00fb Fransay\u00ea ji bo ki\u015fandina \u00ceran\u00ea nav peyman\u00ea encam\u00ean xwest\u00ee nedane. Her \u00e7end Ewropa \u00ceran\u00ea ji derve dih\u00eale j\u00ee, ew naxwaze bi tevah\u00ee be\u015fdar\u00ee siyasetek bibe ku li ser berjewendiy\u00ean \u00cesra\u00eel\u00ea disekine \u00fb hewl dide ku rola navbeynkar bigire ser xwe. Hatiye diyarkirin ku Parlamentoya \u00ceran\u00ea biryar daye ku Tengava (Boxaza) Hurmuz\u00ea bigire, l\u00ea biryara daw\u00ee ji Konseya Bilind a Ewlekariya Netewey\u00ee ya \u00ceran\u00ea re hatiye hi\u015ftin, di heman dem\u00ea de operasyon\u00ean li Tengava Hurmuz\u00ea h\u00een j\u00ee li ser erd\u00ea berdewam dikin. \u00cediay\u00ean ku \u00cesra\u00eel\u00ea li tes\u00ees\u00ean nukleer\u00ee y\u00ean \u00ceran\u00ea xistiye j\u00ee nehatine zelalkirin, l\u00ea b\u00ea guman \u00ear\u00ee\u015fek wisa \u00e7\u00eab\u00fbye \u00fb b\u00fbye sedema windahiy\u00ean mezin.<\/p>\n
Nay\u00ea zan\u00een ka gelo \u015fer d\u00ea bibe sedema guhertina rej\u00eem\u00ea li \u00ceran\u00ea, l\u00ea ev \u00eehtimal di navend\u00ean navnetewey\u00ee de t\u00ea n\u00eeqa\u015fkirin. Stratejiya \u00cesra\u00eel\u00ea ya ji bo t\u00eakbirina bandora her\u00eam\u00ee ya \u00ceran\u00ea \u00fb xurtkirina armanc\u00ean xwe y\u00ean hegemon\u00eek bi awayek\u00ee zelal e\u015fkere ye. M\u00eenak, \u00ear\u00ee\u015f\u00ean \u00cesra\u00eel\u00ea y\u00ean li ser pergal\u00ean parastina heway\u00ee y\u00ean \u00ceran\u00ea di sala 2024\u2019an de armanc dikirin ku binesaziya le\u015fker\u00ee ya \u00ceran\u00ea qels bikin. Ji aliyek\u00ee din ve, \u00ceran stratejiyek hem bersiva le\u015fker\u00ee \u00fb hem j\u00ee vekir\u00ee hi\u015ftina r\u00eay\u00ean d\u00eeplomat\u00eek di\u015fop\u00eene. Her \u00e7end agirbesta ku di navbera \u00ceran \u00fb \u00cesra\u00eel\u00ea de pi\u015ft\u00ee 12 rojan \u00ear\u00ee\u015f\u00ean heway\u00ee y\u00ean hevbe\u015f hat ragihandin n\u00ee\u015fan dide ku her du al\u00ee j\u00ee ji bo lihevkirin\u00ea vekir\u00ee ne, l\u00ea h\u00een ne diyar e ka ev agirbest d\u00ea demk\u00ee be an b\u00eadaw\u00ee be \u00fb ew \u00ea \u00e7awa \u015fikl bigire. R\u00eaber Apo di Parastina xwe ya 5\u2019em\u00een de, di sala 2010\u2019an de, helwesta \u00ceran\u00ea di v\u00ee \u015fer\u00ee de bi awayek\u00ee zelal diyar kirib\u00fb. Ew wiha hatib\u00fb niv\u00eesandin; “Dema ku em dib\u00eajin \u015eer\u00ea C\u00eehan\u00ea y\u00ea S\u00eayem\u00een, em van p\u00ea\u015fketin\u00ean gengaz j\u00ee li ber \u00e7avan digirin. \u00c7ek\u00ean her\u00ee p\u00ea\u015fket\u00ee, tev\u00ee \u00e7ek\u00ean nukleer\u00ee, d\u00ea werin bikar an\u00een. Encam dibe ku ji Ewropaya pi\u015ft\u00ee \u015eer\u00ea C\u00eehan\u00ea y\u00ea Duyem\u00een ne pir c\u00fbda be, di rastiy\u00ea de ew \u00ea pir girantir be. Dema ku bi p\u00ea\u015fketin\u00ean deh sal\u00ean daw\u00ee re were berhev kirin, tirs \u00fb xof\u00ean p\u00ea\u015fketin\u00ean gengaz d\u00ea b\u00eatir t\u00eagih\u00ee\u015ft\u00ee bin. Ger ew li her\u00eam\u00ea bim\u00eene, pergala hegemon\u00eek nikare bi rew\u015fa hey\u00ee raz\u00ee be. M\u00eena her pergala hegemon\u00eek, ew \u00ea bixwaze ser bikeve. Ev \u00ea hewce bike ku \u00ceran dev ji bandora xwe ya her\u00eam\u00ee ya \u015e\u00eea-navend\u00ee berde \u00fb helwestek nerm bigire m\u00eena ku di serdema \u015eah de kir. Qeb\u00fblkirina v\u00ea rew\u015fa gengaz ji h\u00eala rej\u00eema \u00ceran\u00ea ve wekhev\u00ee mirina w\u00ea ye. Hem\u00ee n\u00ee\u015fan didin ku hewldan\u00ean w\u00ea y\u00ean ji bo bandorkirina li ser her\u00eam\u00ea d\u00ea berdewam bikin. Qonaxek n\u00fb ya ‘\u015eer\u00ea C\u00eehan\u00ea y\u00ea S\u00eayem\u00een’ ne ji hol\u00ea ye. Hevsengiya nearam a hey\u00ee nikare demek dir\u00eaj bidome.”<\/strong><\/p>\n H\u00caZ\u00caN HEVPAR \u00db DIJBER<\/strong><\/p>\n B\u00ea guman, armanca sereke ya v\u00ee \u015fer\u00ee mijara \u00e7ek\u00ean navok\u00ee xuya dike, l\u00ea ew bi esl\u00ea xwe be\u015fek ji stratejiyeke hegemon\u00eek e ku armanc dike Rojhilata Nav\u00een ji n\u00fb ve dizayn bike. P\u00ea\u015fbirka berdewam a di navbera h\u00eaz\u00ean hegemon\u00eek \u00ean navnetewey\u00ee (DYA, R\u00fbsya, \u00c7\u00een) \u00fb aktor\u00ean her\u00eam\u00ee (\u00ceran, \u00cesra\u00eel, Tirkiye) de li Rojhilata Nav\u00een yek ji d\u00eenam\u00eek\u00ean bingeh\u00een \u00ean v\u00ee \u015fer\u00ee ye. Her \u00e7end bandora her\u00eam\u00ee ya \u00ceran\u00ea bi v\u00ee \u015fer\u00ee bi giran\u00ee k\u00eam dibe j\u00ee, ji bo \u00cesra\u00eel\u00ea cih vedibe. \u00cesra\u00eel armanca xwe ya mezinb\u00fbna wek\u00ee h\u00eazek hegemon\u00eek a her\u00eam\u00ee didom\u00eene. M\u00eenak\u00ee, bombebaran\u00ean dijwar \u00ean \u00cesra\u00eel\u00ea y\u00ean li ser hedef\u00ean Hizbullah\u00ea li Lubnan\u00ea di sala 2024\u2019an de dikarin wek\u00ee be\u015fek ji stratejiya \u00ceran\u00ea ya ji bo qelskirina h\u00eaz\u00ean xwe y\u00ean wek\u00eel werin hesibandin. D\u00eesa, wek\u00ee ku R\u00eaber Apo di Parastina xwe ya 5\u2019em\u00een de destn\u00ee\u015fan dike, div\u00ea \u00cesra\u00eel bandora xwe wek\u00ee hevalbend\u00ea her\u00ee gir\u00eeng \u00ea pergal\u00ea \u00fb bingeha hegemon\u00eek a li her\u00eam\u00ea bi berdewam\u00ee z\u00eade bike. \u00ceran b\u00ea guman d\u00ea ne\u00e7ar bim\u00eene ku bandora z\u00eade ya Tirkiye \u00fb S\u00fbriyey\u00ea rawest\u00eene \u00fb pa\u015fve bixe. Cureyek pev\u00e7\u00fbnek hegemon\u00eek a her\u00eam\u00ee ya b\u00eanav di navbera Tirkiye, \u00ceran, S\u00fbriye \u00fb \u00cesra\u00eel\u00ea de heye.<\/p>\n Ji aliy\u00ea din ve, Tirkiye di v\u00ea p\u00eavajoy\u00ea de helwestek nakok digire. Her \u00e7end hik\u00fbmeta AKP\u2019\u00ea hewl dide bi retor\u00eeka “em \u015fer naxwazin” w\u00eaneyek a\u015ftiyane n\u00ee\u015fan bide j\u00ee, ew di heman dem\u00ea de armanc\u00ean xwe y\u00ean hegemon\u00eek \u00ean her\u00eam\u00ee didom\u00eene. Heb\u00fbna Tirkiyey\u00ea li S\u00fbriyey\u00ea \u00fb n\u00eaz\u00eekatiya w\u00ea ya ji bo pirsgir\u00eaka Kurd n\u00ee\u015faneya van armancan e. Li \u015f\u00fbna \u00e7areseriyek demokrat\u00eek ji bo pirsgir\u00eaka Kurd, hik\u00fbmeta Erdogan pol\u00eet\u00eekay\u00ean derengxistin \u00fb tasfiyey\u00ea dime\u015f\u00eene. M\u00eenak\u00ee, operasyon\u00ean le\u015fker\u00ee y\u00ean Tirkiyey\u00ea li dij\u00ee Rojava di sala 2024\u2019an de bi armanca qelskirina tevgera Kurd berdewam kirin. Ev wek\u00ee stratejiyek bi armanca Tirkiyey\u00ea ya b\u00fby\u00eena h\u00eazek her\u00eam\u00ee ve gir\u00eaday\u00ee t\u00ea d\u00eetin. Di heman dem\u00ea de, her \u00e7end hik\u00fbmeta AKP\u00ea hewl dide ku rola navbeynkar di \u015fer\u00ea \u00ceran-\u00cesra\u00eel \u00fb dan\u00fbstandin\u00ean R\u00fbsya-Ukraynay\u00ea de bigire ser xwe j\u00ee, ev rol ji ber ku ziman\u00ea \u015fer \u00fb tund\u00fbt\u00fbjiy\u00ea di siyaseta navxwey\u00ee de bikar t\u00eene, nay\u00ea bawerkirin. M\u00eenak\u00ee, hewldan\u00ean Tirkiyey\u00ea y\u00ean ji bo navbeynkariya dan\u00fbstandin\u00ean Ukrayna-R\u00fbsyay\u00ea di sala 2025an de ji h\u00eala civaka navnetewey\u00ee ve bi hi\u015fyariyek\u00ea hatin p\u00ea\u015fwaz\u00eekirin.<\/p>\n Bingeha v\u00ee \u015fer\u00ee \u00fb hewldan\u00ean s\u00eawirana her\u00eam\u00ee xwesteka h\u00eaz\u00ean hegemon\u00eek e ku li ser \u00e7avkan\u00ee \u00fb dever\u00ean stratej\u00eek \u00ean Rojhilata Nav\u00een serdest bibin. Rezerv\u00ean petrol \u00fb gaza xwezay\u00ee y\u00ean \u00ceran\u00ea, kontrola Tengava Hurmuz\u00ea \u00fb ewlehiya \u00cesra\u00eel\u00ea di nav h\u00eaman\u00ean bingeh\u00een \u00ean v\u00ea pev\u00e7\u00fbn\u00ea de ne. Ji aliyek\u00ee din ve, t\u00ea d\u00eetin ku Tirkiye di v\u00ea haw\u00eerdora kaot\u00eek de li benda derfetek\u00ea ye, m\u00eenak, bi hewldan\u00ean xwe y\u00ean berfirehkirina qada bandora xwe li S\u00fbriyey\u00ea. L\u00eabel\u00ea, siyaseta AKP-\u00ea ya \u00e7aresernekirina pirsgir\u00eaka Kurd aramiya navxwey\u00ee tehd\u00eet dike \u00fb armanc\u00ean w\u00ea y\u00ean her\u00eam\u00ee qels dike. Her \u00e7end \u00e7areseriyek demokrat\u00eek dikare Tirkiyey\u00ea bike h\u00eamanek aramiya her\u00eam\u00ee, pol\u00eet\u00eekay\u00ean hey\u00ee zem\u00eena \u015fer \u00fb pev\u00e7\u00fbn\u00ea dixwin.<\/p>\n B\u00ea guman, R\u00eaber Apo nirxandin\u00ean ku \u00e7aren\u00fbsa Tirkiyey\u00ea j\u00ee ron\u00ee dikin kir. D\u00eesa di heman parastina xwe de; “Her \u00e7end hevgirtina di navbera Tirkiye-\u00ceran-S\u00fbriy\u00ea de bi balki\u015fandina li dij\u00ee Kurdan p\u00ea\u015f bikeve j\u00ee, encam\u00ean w\u00ea d\u00ea pir gir\u00eeng bin. Ev hevgirtin rasterast bi qeb\u00fblkirina min a \u00cemraliy\u00ea ve gir\u00eaday\u00ee p\u00ea\u015f ket. \u00cediaya ku Tirkiyey\u00ea eksena xwe guhertiye ne b\u00eawate ye. Ger Tirkiye di nav pergala hegemon\u00eek a Rojava de bim\u00eene, rew\u015fa w\u00ea ya hey\u00ee nikare demek dir\u00eaj bidome. H\u00eaviya Tirkiyey\u00ea ew e ku hevgirtina s\u00eaal\u00ee di berd\u00eala hin taw\u00eezan de di nav pergal\u00ea de were entegrekirin, di v\u00ea rew\u015f\u00ea de \u00e7aren\u00fbsa \u00cesra\u00eel\u00ea d\u00ea bi xetereyan re r\u00fb bi r\u00fb bim\u00eene. Ji bo tevgera Siyon\u00eest ne mimk\u00fbn e ku v\u00ea rew\u015f\u00ea qeb\u00fbl bike.” R\u00eaber Apo, gir\u00eengiya Kurdistan \u00fb Kurdan li vir tekez kir \u00fb got, “Di her s\u00ea rew\u015fan de, poz\u00eesyona erdn\u00eegar\u00ee ya Kurdistan\u00ea \u00fb poz\u00eesyona Kurdan di war\u00ea tifaq\u00ea de stratej\u00eek in. Ew di rew\u015fek de ne ku diyar bikin ka d\u00ea hevseng\u00ee li k\u00eejan al\u00ee be an li dij\u00ee w\u00ea be. Kurdistan \u00fb Kurd dikarin rol\u00ean xwe y\u00ean kevne\u015fop\u00ee y\u00ean text\u00ean satranc\u00ea \u00fb piyonan ji bo may\u00eena d\u00eerok\u00ea berdin \u00fb bibin mijara sereke.”<\/strong><\/p>\n Di encam\u00ea de, ev \u015fer\u00ea li Rojhilata Nav\u00een ne ten\u00ea bi \u00e7ek\u00ean nukleer\u00ee an pev\u00e7\u00fbn\u00ean her\u00eam\u00ee ve s\u00eenordar e; Ew n\u00ee\u015fanek p\u00ea\u015fbaziya hegemon\u00eek a c\u00eehan\u00ee \u00fb her\u00eam\u00ee ye. Lawazkirina \u00ceran\u00ea, xurtkirina \u00cesra\u00eel\u00ea \u00fb pol\u00eet\u00eekay\u00ean l\u00eager\u00eena derfetan \u00ean Tirkiyey\u00ea be\u015f\u00ean p\u00eavajoyek\u00ea ne ku t\u00ea de her\u00eam ji n\u00fb ve t\u00ea s\u00eawirandin. Di v\u00ea p\u00eavajoy\u00ea de, d\u00eeplomas\u00ee \u00fb \u015fer bi hev ve gir\u00eaday\u00ee ne \u00fb di serdema p\u00ea\u015f de, domdariya agirbest\u00ea, n\u00eeqa\u015f\u00ean li ser guhertina rej\u00eem\u00ea \u00fb hevsengiy\u00ean h\u00eaz\u00ean her\u00eam\u00ee \u00fb bi taybet\u00ee Kurd\u00ean ku heb\u00fbna xwe n\u00ee\u015fan dane, d\u00ea bibin h\u00eaman\u00ean bingeh\u00een \u00ean ku d\u00ea p\u00ea\u015feroja Rojhilata Nav\u00een \u015fekil bidin.<\/p>\n