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ABD\u2019nin fitili ate\u015fleme zaman\u0131 ve yeri \u00e7ok \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani, <\/span>do\u011frudan \u0130ran ABD kendisi i\u00e7in risk g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleyani\u2019yi Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani\u2019nin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesi \u0130ran ve Burada \u00f6nemli olan Ortado\u011fu devletlerinin \u0130ran \u015fu anda b\u00f6lgede \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir g\u00fcce sahip, <\/span>ama ABD\u2019de taraf\u0131ndan <\/span>g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fczle\u015ftirilmi\u015f bir g\u00fc\u00e7<\/span> haline getirilmi\u015f durumda. Bu da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgede y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015eii \u015eimdiye kadar ABD askerleri ba\u015fta Suriye K\u00fcrdistan Stratejik Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi<\/strong><\/p>\n www.lekolin.com – www.lekolin.org – www.lekolin.net \u2013 \n <\/p>\n
\n\u00f6nemli, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc istedi\u011fi yerde istedi\u011fi zaman bu suikast\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilecek
\nistihbarata sahip bir \u00fclkedir. Bu suikast\u0131n hedefi \u0130ran oldu\u011fu kadar
\nOrtado\u011fu\u2019da yeni olu\u015facak dengeyi eline almay\u0131 hedeflemektedir. <\/span><\/p>\n
\nDini Lideri Hamaney\u2019e ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f askeri operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n
\nbeyni konumundayd\u0131.<\/span> Bu suikast ise \u0130ran askeri beynine bir
\ndarbeydi. Onun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda <\/span>\u0130ran, Irak, Suriye ve L\u00fcbnan hatt\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck
\noranda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla S\u00fcleymani\u2019nin etkisindeydi.<\/span> S\u00fcleymani, \u0130ran, devrim sonras\u0131 \u015eii n\u00fcfusun yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu
\n\u00fclkelerde, silahl\u0131 gruplara e\u011fitim ve te\u00e7hizat deste\u011fi, zaman zaman da
\ndo\u011frudan\u00a0\u2018g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc\u2019\u00a0deste\u011fi vererek, n\u00fcfuz a\u011f\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletme politikas\u0131
\ng\u00fcd\u00fcyordu.<\/span> Irak\u2019ta, Suriye\u2019de, L\u00fcbnan\u2019da <\/span>n\u00fcfus a\u011f\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletirken, <\/span>Yemen\u2019de, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinde ise
\ndenemelere devam ediyordu.<\/span> S\u00fcleymani,
\nIrak\u2019ta\u00a0Ha\u015fti \u015eabi\u00a0silahl\u0131 milis grubunun kurulmas\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6ncesinde de
\nBedir Tugaylar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan, destekleyen ve y\u00f6nlendiren isimd<\/span>i. Yine <\/span>Suriye\u2019de, Esed rejimine do\u011frudan destek verdi.<\/span> \u2018G\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc\u2019<\/span> Kud\u00fcs G\u00fcc\u00fc<\/span> askerlerini, Hizbullah ve di\u011fer \u015eii
\n\u00f6rg\u00fctlerden\u00a0\u2018g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc\u2019\u00a0milis deste\u011fini y\u00f6nlendirdi.<\/span> Kendisi de, Esed g\u00fc\u00e7leri ile birlikte sahada \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 y\u00f6netti.<\/span> L\u00fcbnan\u2019da Hizbullah\u2019\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir g\u00fc\u00e7 haline getirdi.<\/span> Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun bir \u00e7ok devletinde etkili olan Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani, ABD i\u00e7in
\nen b\u00fcy\u00fck engeldi. Bunun i\u00e7in ilk suikast \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n askeri beynine yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oldu. <\/span><\/p>\n
\nortadan kald\u0131rarak, ba\u015fta Irak olmak \u00fczere Suriye ve di\u011fer Ortado\u011fu \u00fclkelerinde
\nalan\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmakta. Risk g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc b\u00fct\u00fcn devletleri, toplumlar\u0131 ve
\ng\u00fc\u00e7leri ekonomik, siyasi ve askeri anlamda m\u00fcdahalelerde bulunarak kendi \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc
\ntemizleme politikas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. <\/span><\/p>\n
\nABD aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik sava\u015f\u0131, silahl\u0131 sava\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme ihtimalini y\u00fckseltti.
\nABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve tehditlerin yerini
\nsilahlar alm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u015eu anda g\u00f6r\u00fcnen tablo ise bu suikastla birlikte,
\nOrtado\u011fu\u2019daki denklemlerin de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fi ve kurulucak yeni denklemin ABD\u2019nin
\nelinde olma ihtimalinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fudur. ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump ilk olarak \u0130ran
\nmolla y\u00f6netimine askeri ve ekonomik ambargo uygulayarak i\u00e7 dinamikleri
\nzay\u0131flatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Son d\u00f6nemde \u0130ran\u2019daki halk eylemlerinin k\u00f6keni de bu ekonomik
\nkrizden ve halk\u0131n yoksulla\u015fmas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yordu. Ekomomik politikas\u0131nda
\nba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olan ABD<\/span> \u015fimdi ise <\/span>\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Suriye ve
\nIrak merkezli askeri hakimiyetini de k\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. ABD\u2019nin birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce
\nIrak\u2019ta ve Suriye\u2019de \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan do\u011frudan y\u00f6netilen ve desteklenen askeri
\nmilislere y\u00f6nelik ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi operasyon, b\u00f6lgedeki askeri ve politik
\ndengelerin yeniden \u015fekillenece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor<\/span>. Politik ve askeri dengelerin yeniden \u015fekillenece\u011fi yeni bir s\u00fcrece
\ngiri\u015f yaparken bu denklemin ta\u015flar\u0131 nereye yerle\u015ftirilece\u011fi ise merak konusu. <\/span><\/p>\n
\nve g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin izleyece\u011fi stratejidir. S\u00fcleymani\u2019nin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesini sadece \u0130ran
\ndevleti \u015fahs\u0131nda ele almak bizi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir yan\u0131lg\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7ine s\u00fcr\u00fckleyecekt\u0131r.
\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ran ile birlikte Ortado\u011fu\u2019da g\u00fc\u00e7 sahibi olan b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fclkeleri ve g\u00fc\u00e7leri
\nhedeflemekle birlikte d\u00fcnya \u00fclkelerini de kendi k\u0131skac\u0131na alacakt\u0131r. <\/span><\/p>\n
\npolitikas\u0131n\u0131 da sekteye u\u011fratacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc <\/span>\u0130ran son birka\u00e7
\ny\u0131la kadar \u00e7ok ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir milis stratejisi y\u00fcr\u00fcterek S\u00fcnni radikalizmi, S\u00fcnni
\ntoplumlar\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yordu.<\/span> Bunu<\/span> yaparken de \u015eii radikalizmini ve \u015eii toplumlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyordu.<\/span> Ama son iki y\u0131ld\u0131r bu stratejinin sonuna geldi. Hamaney\u2019den sonra
\nkimin lider olaca\u011f\u0131, sistemin devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131 belli de\u011fil<\/span>. Bu karma\u015fa i\u00e7inde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir atak yapmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn
\ng\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc <\/span>\u0130ran, kendisine has y\u00f6ntemlerle ABD\u2019ye yan\u0131t vermek istese de bunu
\neskisi kadar etkili yapacak durumda de\u011fildir. ABD \u00e7\u0131tay\u0131 bu suikastla \u00f6yle
\ny\u00fckse\u011fe \u00e7\u0131kartm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ki \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bu suikastla yanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tatmin edecek bir
\nyan\u0131t vermesi \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fcr. Ama \u0130ran bir yandan mezhep\u00e7ili\u011fi \u00f6te yandan da
\nmilliyet\u00e7ili\u011fi y\u00fckselterek, rejimden kopma i\u015faretleri \u00e7o\u011falan i\u015f, ekmek,
\n\u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck talepleriyle soka\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kan halk\u0131, rejim etraf\u0131nda toplamaya
\n\u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca \u015eii Hilali i\u00e7inde mezhep \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 ve Pers-Arap
\nmilliyet\u00e7ili\u011fi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcterek yeniden g\u00fcndemi belirleyen bir mevziye
\ngirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Buna L\u00fcbnan, Irak, \u0130ran\u2019da mezhep\u00e7ili\u011fi ve milliyet\u00e7i\u011fi
\na\u015fan, talepler etraf\u0131nda birle\u015ferek iktidarlar\u0131 zorlayan m\u00fccadelelerin \u015fiddetle
\nbast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 eklenecektir. Ancak bunu ne kadar ba\u015faracaklar\u0131 da tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r.
\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, suikast ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ran, Irak, L\u00fcbnan gibi dini-mezhepsel iktidarlar\u0131n
\nzay\u0131flad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6ster<\/span>iyor. <\/span><\/p>\n
\nolmak \u00fczere Ortado\u011fu\u2019dan \u00e7ekilecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ise bir manevradan ba\u015fka bir
\n\u015fey de\u011fildir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD hi\u00e7 bir zaman Ortado\u011fu\u2019yu terk etmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmedi. Tam
\naksine b\u00fct\u00fcn alanlara sanip olmak i\u00e7in manevralar geli\u015ftirdi. Bununla birlikte <\/span>Mart 2003\u2019te
\nIrak\u2019\u0131 i\u015fgal eden ABD<\/span>\u2019nin<\/span> Irak\u2019ta <\/span>9 askeri \u00fcss\u00fc ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 bin askeri bulunuyor.<\/span> Yani tarihten bu g\u00fcne b\u00fct\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 Ortado\u011fu \u00fczerinde yapan
\nABD\u2019nin alan\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131p \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek ise safl\u0131ktan \u00f6teye ge\u00e7mez. ABD ve
\n\u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 tehditler savurarak kendi istediklerini elde etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fsa da
\nher iki \u00fclke s\u0131cak bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya girme riskini g\u00f6ze alamayacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Hem
\n\u0130ran hemde ABD s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n getirece\u011fi eksileri iyi g\u00f6rmekted\u0131r. Ancak
\nABD\u2019nin \u015fu anda tek hedefi Ortado\u011fu\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir g\u00fcce sahip olan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131
\nbertaraf etmektir. ABD bu suikastla \u0130ran\u2019la birlikte Irak\u2019\u0131 par\u00e7alama ve
\nSuriye\u2019ye asker g\u00f6ndererek daha fazla hakim olmay\u0131 hedeflerken, <\/span>Irak
\nparlamentosu, \u00fclkedeki Amerikan askerlerinin \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren yasa tasar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131
\nonaylad\u0131.<\/span> Bununla birlikte I<\/span>rak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti Irak
\ntopraklar\u0131ndaki herhangi bir yabanc\u0131 askeri varl\u0131\u011fa <\/span>son vermek anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu da <\/span>G\u00fc\u00e7lerin Stat\u00fcs\u00fc
\nAnla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SOFA) iptal edilmesi demektir.<\/span>\u00a0 \u015eu anda SOFA\u2019n\u0131n iptal edilmesi
\nise \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir ihtimal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Tabi ki Irak parlamentosunda al\u0131nan
\nkarar \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bekledi\u011fi ve memnun oldu\u011fu bir sonu\u00e7. Bu kararla birlikte\u00a0 S\u00fcnniler ve K\u00fcrtlerin oturumu boykot etmesi
\nise Irak\u2019\u0131 \u015fimdiden b\u00f6lm\u00fc\u015f durumda. ABD\u2019nin \u00e7ekilmesi durumunda yerle\u015fece\u011fi tek
\nyer ise Fedaral <\/span>K\u00fcrdistan<\/span>d\u0131r<\/span>. Bu, Tahran\u2019\u0131n
\nistemedi\u011fi bir senaryoyu tetikleyebilir <\/span> yani<\/span> Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta olmayan ABD, K\u00fcrdistan\u2019\u0131n
\nba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z<\/span>l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kararak, Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z
\nK\u00fcrdistan giri\u015fimlerini destekleme ihtimallerini y\u00fckseltmi\u015f durumda. Bu ihtimaller
\nbile Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki dengelerin de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu s\u00fcrecin b\u00fct\u00fcn
\nOrtado\u011fu toplumlar\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7leri i\u00e7in zorlu bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmek
\ngerekir.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n
\nwww.lekolin.info -www.navendalekolin.com -http:\/\/kursam.org\/index.html-
\nhttp:\/\/kursam.net\/index.html<\/strong><\/p>\n